He added that his medium-term target of 18,150 for the Sensex and 4,935 on the Nifty in early 2008 remain unchanged.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Atul Suri:
Q: Where is the Nifty going you think more than 4,650 into new highs or is it going back to test 4,000?
A: I think it is going to new highs and it is going substantially higher. If you really take a step back and look at the market in perspective, each month we develop something new, like we had subprime last month, yen carry trade, now we have the Fed cut, you may have hurricanes next month. But in this whole scenario and in this whole bull market that is panning out, on the charts what happens is that we are making higher bottoms and higher tops.
As long as that persists, there is really no major threat to the market. In between you have issues whether we go 50 basis points or 25 basis points, what is the body language, there is a lot of stuff that happens in that, and nobody can be an expert at that.
As far as what I look at, for me the important level is, will the market hold 4,000, because on the Nifty 4,000 has become a very important intermediate bottom. Till we really do not breach that substantially with volumes all convincing, I really think it will go higher. I still retain my medium-term targets, which I think will come in early 2008 of around 18,150 in the Sensex and 4,935 on the Nifty.
So, on the probability map I would really play on the long side. Yes, short-term volatility will be there, ups and downs will be there. Yes, new things will pop up, but I would play long.
Q: If you were a positional trader now running a long the Nifty position where would you keep a stop loss in the light of expected volatility?
A: Again if one were a positional kind of trader one would keep it much deeper than the usual 5 or 10 points. I really would see that unless and until we see 4-5% kind of declines on the Nifty, again I am talking about a very large positional trader, who would take time to get in and get out, I think I would keep those kind of stop losses because 1-2% kind of move is just a morning factor, it gaps down or gaps up that much.
So, I really would really keep those kinds of stop losses. Be ready, there is going to be volatility ahead, but the basic plot I still think is up.
Q: Even as you watch that 4,000 base, what would set out as a goalpost for that volatility on either end if you were trading the Nifty?
A: I really wouldn't keep a very small 1-2%. What has really happened is that the market has been a graveyard for Nifty traders for the last 2-3 months because any Nifty trader keeps stop losses of 1-3% because we are on a leveraged position and a 2% kind of swing on either side, if you are leveraged two to three times brings down your portfolio five to six times.
So, those are the kind of stop losses most Nifty traders keep. And in the last 2-3 months what you have seen is that the markets open gap-up or gap-down 100 points. So, even if you are on the short side or long side your stops gets jumped out.
So, really it is essential seeing the current volatility the situations that they are to keep much deeper stop losses, and I would really keep more than 3%, a 3-5% kind of move on either side for longs and shorts to really survive it. Otherwise this market is going to keep chopping you, you are really going to be spinning around and your losses are going to be much more than what your systems anticipate, simply because of gap-up and gap- down. It has been quiet in the last few days. But I think in the coming week you are going to see a lot more of that.
Q: I believe one sector that struck you, as an outperformer is fertilisers, what do you like particularly over there?
A: Fertilisers again was one of those dirty sectors, nobody wanted to touch, was really beaten down. You had this story coming pre-monsoon and died out. But really what you are seeing in these fertiliser charts, in the Nagarjunas, and the Chambals, and many others is that the kind of volume open interest build up and the price moves are again at certain lifetime special moments. It happens every monsoon, but that's always a flash in the pan, and you really never make much money. But the kind of volumes, the kind of open interest build ups that you are seeing, really tells you that there is something more special happening out there.
The only thing is that being a sector linked to the government and various government policies, one should be a little careful on building little concentrated positions, few positions and monitoring them, having a margin of safety, because the risk is of getting into newer stuff.
I rather feel that you should be with the frontline stocks, where there is action, where there is momentum, the Nagarjunas and the Chambals of the world, and I do think there is something that's happening there. There is a lot more to happen in the sector structurally. So, I would really be in this sector at the moment.
Q: Have you looked at the charts of Reliance Capital?
A: Yesterday the kind of breakout it made was a beauty. Again, this whole Reliance pack if you look at them, they are such special charts. And they don't just tell you that okay you are going to have better numbers; the next quarter is going to be better. They really tell you that there is something much deeper happening. Again some very structural stuff happening, at the mergers and acquisition space, or whatever you have. I'm not an expert at that. But these charts tell you of some very big moves.
Reliance Capital Rs 1,325 yesterday's close, I feel it is heading to around Rs 1,600 and the whole Reliance pack. Look at Reliance Energy, the kind of moves, it has had. We know what BSES, as a stock was, a dead dodo kind of stock, never moved. And the kinds of moves you had the open interest build up, the volumes moves, and the kind of triggers that are happening.
So, these are kind of special moments, these happen few times in a stocks life, and I think we should be in them, we should look at them and they are opportunities, irrespective of the Nifty moving 10 points up or down. With the kinds of moves that are happening, if you have a position in the Reliance pack, it really doesn't matter where the Nifty is right now.
Q: You used to track a few media stocks as well; they have been consolidating for a long time now. What do you sense there, is the story over for the moment or is it just a consolidation phase?
A: I think it is a consolidation phase. You have a lot of sectors where you really go into these kinds of consolidations and they kind of frustrate you, especially if you are a trader with limited time horizons, you tend to get kind of frustrated and you give away your positions, and when the positions really get minimum you find breakouts.
So, I really think that the media stocks are consolidating. I really feel that, as a sector there is a lot more to happen there. Some of your bouquet stocks also. Without being in any bias or partiality, they look very good charts.
You see even some of the midcap pharma stocks, they really frustrate you, Divi's , Matrix, Glenmark, they frustrate you with a lot of consolidation, and people get fed up. But when they move in a week or ten days, they do what other stocks do in a year. So, I definitely would be in that sector.
Q: Have you had a chance to look at any of the midcap technology stocks particularly the ones with that education leg to them NIIT, Educomp and more recently Everonn?
A: That is the bright spot in the IT space because the big guys are really almost at 52-week lows of getting somewhere there. And there is a bit of a problem. The stocks you mentioned are certainly great. I personally like Aptech as a stock. I feel it is really going to outperform over a period of time. NIIT also, is something where there is action.
Again, they are longer-term stories if one has the patience; one has the guts, I would say there is a lot more money to be made. These are again some very eventful things happening there, much beyond just quarterly numbers.
Q: You track some of the global indices as well what kind of signals are you getting from there and how much in tandem are we moving with them now?
A: In fact we have done pretty well if you look at it. When we had this whole fall of the subprime problem happening, the Nifty came down from 4,600 to 4,000, about a 15-16% kind of decline. And we really promptly bounced back about 13%. We are just I think 2-3% from all times highs. So, at stages we fell due to that political turmoil and wobbles that we had, we were underperforming. But I think we have caught up very well, and we are almost to the kissing distance.
If you put it into other global markets, especially the Asian markets, you will find that even they have followed similar moves and all these markets are just kind of waiting, there is a bit of a pause. You see this pause happening in the last few days. The volatility has died down, they are moving horizontally and they are waiting for a big event.
What this event is, we all know, it is going to be interest rates. But what is going to be the impact, 50 basis points or 25 basis points, what is the body language, what is the language, we just don't know. But I do feel it is the silence before the storm, and I think the move is going to be up. So, there is a correlation certainly happening with other emerging and Asian markets.
Q: A couple of infrastructure stocks if you have looked at the charts, Punj Lloyd and JP Associates?
A: Again two very rocking charts actually I would say. They really look very good. With JP Associates around Rs 950 yesterday, I would keep a stop loss of Rs 900 and trade to Rs 1,040. This stock is pretty much a darling with the institutional investors, and has always been in the limelight when there has been a bit of a move. It also tends to be a bit of a momentum boy and moves fast.
Punj Lloyd also has made breakouts. Again, after listing kind of a drab, kind of an underperformer. But lately it has started performing well, got into lifetime highs. Again something, which I feel, would go substantially higher. These are two very interesting and exciting stocks and I would be in them.
Disclosures:
I may have a vested interest in the stocks I spoke about, since I or my clients are likely to hold positions in the securities discussed. I may change my views depending on changing market conditions.
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Source: MC
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