Ganesh Housing (GHFC IN; Mkt Cap USD0.6b, CMP Rs690, Buy)
Exciting play on the Ahmedabad market: Ahmedabad is emerging as one of the fastest growing commercial hubs in India and stands to benefit significantly from the ongoing industrial boom in Gujarat. The state boasts of GDP growth rate of 10.6%, which is higher than the national average. Ganesh Housing Corporation (GHCL) is the largest land bank holder in Ahmedabad, with ~66msf of strategically located plots in and around the city. It also has a proven execution track record of ~15msf residential development since inception.
Pioneered townships in Ahmedabad: GHCL has pioneered the concept of townships in Ahmedabad and is currently developing three mega townships aggregating to ~46msf. Its integrated development approach allows it to attain higher yields and better margins.
Foray into new verticals positive: GHCL is expanding its development portfolio from residential to new verticals such as commercial and retail, which enjoy higher yields and better margins. We expect GHCL's revenue mix to witness a significant change and model revenues from the commercial vertical to increase from nil in FY07 to 74% in FY10.
Buy with a target price of Rs890: Over FY07-10, we expect GHCL's revenues and net profit to increase at a CAGR of 175% and 170%, respectively, driven by strong growth from the commercial and retail verticals. Our target price of Rs890, is based on a 20% discount to NAV of Rs1 ,112/share to account for (1) city-specific concentration, (2) execution risk, and (3) the fact that almost 50% of land bank is yet to be transferred from promoter group companies to GHCL. Buy.
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